The United States dramatically reduced its intake of Nigerian crude oil in January 2026, signalling shifting dynamics in global oil markets and heightened competition among African producers.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveal that imports from Nigeria fell by 47.2 per cent compared to December 2025, sliding from 3.15 million barrels to just 1.66 million barrels.

The drop of nearly 1.5 million barrels represents one of the sharpest month-to-month declines in recent years for Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market.

The financial value of Nigerian exports mirrored this decline. Customs data show that shipments dropped from $217 million in December to roughly $116 million in January, while cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) valuations also fell sharply, from $223 million to $119 million.

Analysts note that the narrowing difference between customs and CIF values, from $5.7 million to $3 million, may reflect lower shipping costs or shorter delivery routes.

The decline in Nigerian crude came amid a broader reduction in U.S. oil demand. Overall crude imports fell 5.1 per cent from 198.3 million barrels in December to 188.2 million barrels in January, while the total customs value of imports decreased from $11.41 billion to $10.56 billion.

Within Africa, however, Nigeria’s setback created opportunities for other producers. Angola’s exports to the U.S. surged from 575,000 barrels to 2.06 million barrels, while Ghana entered the U.S. market for the first time in months, shipping 738,000 barrels. Libya, on the other hand, saw its shipments drop from 2.14 million barrels to 1.09 million barrels.

As a result, Nigeria’s share of U.S. crude imports slid to just 0.88 per cent in January, down from 1.59 per cent in December. The shift underscores how quickly market positions can change due to pricing, logistics, and refinery preferences.

Despite the January slump, crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s U.S. trade. Nigerian exports to the U.S. were valued at $183 million, down from $297 million the previous month, with crude accounting for 63–65 per cent of the total, slightly lower than the over 73 per cent recorded in December.

Meanwhile, the U.S. expanded its trade surplus with Nigeria from $84 million to $419 million, driven by a jump in American exports to Nigeria from $381 million to $602 million.

Across the continent, the U.S. experienced a trade deficit with Africa of $503 million in January, reversing a $174 million surplus in December. Imports from Africa rose to $3.54 billion, while exports edged lower to $3.04 billion.

Over the long term, Nigeria remains Africa’s dominant crude supplier to the U.S., accounting for more than half of continental exports in 2025. The country shipped 46.6 million barrels out of Africa’s total 89.4 million barrels, despite a slight decline from 2024 levels.

Interestingly, the drop in U.S. demand occurred even as Nigeria’s domestic production increased. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company reported output of 1.64 million barrels per day in January, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December.

Yet higher production did not translate into stronger U.S. purchases, suggesting that global market forces are playing a more decisive role than domestic supply growth.

Financial results reflected this volatility. The state oil company posted a profit after tax of ₦385 billion ($260 million), even as revenue fell from ₦4.82 trillion ($3.2 billion) to ₦2.57 trillion ($1.7 billion). Analysts attributed the divergence between revenue and profit to operational efficiencies amid a fluctuating market.

Economist Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the recent U.S. tariff adjustments were unlikely to significantly affect Nigeria’s economy.

He noted that the country’s reliance on crude exports and limited diversification, coupled with barriers like U.S. visa restrictions, posed more substantial challenges for long-term trade.

“The real issue is structural,” Yusuf said. “Our economy cannot rely on one market or one commodity. Travel and investment barriers have a bigger impact than small tariff changes.”

The January figures highlight a complex reality for Nigeria: production gains at home do not guarantee stable demand abroad.

As Angola and Ghana expand their presence in the U.S. market, Nigeria faces renewed pressure to diversify its exports and strengthen ties with alternative buyers.