Ghana’s cedi is coming under renewed seasonal pressure as heightened first-quarter foreign exchange demand begins to weigh on the currency.
According to Databank Research, the local currency posted a mixed performance over the past fortnight. In the interbank market, the cedi weakened by 0.91 percent against the US dollar to close at a midrate of GHS 10.98. It also depreciated against the pound and euro, shedding 1.31 percent and 1.08 percent respectively.
However, in the retail market, the cedi showed relative strength against the dollar, firming 1.71 percent to GHS 11.70, while recording modest gains against the pound and euro.
Databank attributes the recent weakness to typical first-quarter dynamics, as importers ramp up dollar purchases to restock inventories. The cedi’s 4 percent depreciation in January reflects this seasonal trend, with sustained importer demand expected to keep mild pressure on the currency in the near term.
Despite this, the research firm maintains that Ghana’s external buffers remain supportive. Healthy international reserves and elevated gold prices are expected to give the Bank of Ghana room for targeted interventions to prevent sharp currency swings.
Databank forecasts the USD/GHS pair to trade within a GHS 10.95–GHS 11.10 range over the next two weeks.
Across the sub-region, Nigeria’s naira strengthened by 5.82 percent to close at NGN 1,365.69 per dollar, supported by central bank interventions, improved dollar inflows, and easing speculative pressures.
Analysts expect the naira to trade between NGN 1,350 and NGN 1,370 in the coming week.
The broader Sub-Saharan African currency landscape remains mixed, reflecting varying degrees of central bank support, reserve positions, and external demand pressures.
For businesses and investors, the immediate focus remains on importer-driven FX demand and the Bank of Ghana’s capacity to smooth volatility. While seasonal pressures may persist through the first quarter, supportive reserve levels and gold earnings could help anchor expectations and limit excessive depreciation.
For corporates with foreign currency exposure, the coming weeks may require closer liquidity management as the market navigates the typical Q1 dollar demand cycle.
